The first week of April marks the start of Q2. Institutional investors are repositioning, new quarterly strategies are being set, and several major data releases will determine the market's tone for the entire month. Here is a day-by-day breakdown of what to watch.

Monday, March 30 — Month-End Rebalancing

Month-end flows can create artificial volatility as portfolio managers rebalance. Do not read too much into sharp moves near the close. Key releases today include the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey and Eurozone preliminary CPI data.

Tuesday, April 1 — Q2 Begins, US ISM Manufacturing PMI

The first trading day of Q2. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is the headline number — a reading above 50 signals expansion, below signals contraction. The index has been hovering near the 50 threshold for months, so a decisive break in either direction could set the tone for April.

• US ISM Manufacturing PMI (March)
• Korea Trade Balance — semiconductor and auto exports are the market mover for KOSPI
• Japan Tankan Survey — hints at BOJ policy direction

Wednesday, April 2 — ADP Employment Preview

The ADP private payrolls report often serves as a preview for Friday's official jobs number. However, recent divergences between ADP and NFP have been wide, so treat it as directional guidance rather than a precise forecast.

• US ADP Employment Change (March)
• US ISM Services PMI
• Korea CPI (March) — directly impacts Bank of Korea rate decisions

Thursday, April 3 — ECB Minutes

The European Central Bank releases minutes from its March meeting. Watch for any shifts in the ECB's tone on rate cuts — the euro and European equities will react accordingly.

• ECB Meeting Minutes
• US Weekly Jobless Claims
• US Trade Balance

Friday, April 4 — The Big One: US Nonfarm Payrolls

This is the week's most important release. The March Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will directly influence the Fed's rate decision timeline.

• Consensus estimate: +150,000 to +180,000 jobs
• Unemployment rate: Expected to hold at 4.1%

Market scenarios:
Beat (+200K+): Rate cut expectations pushed back → dollar strength, mixed equities
Miss (below 100K): Rate cut expectations move forward → dollar weakness, bond rally, growth stocks up

Your Weekly Checklist

• Monday: Review portfolio weights before month-end volatility
• Tuesday: Korea export data → direction signal for Korean tech stocks
• Wednesday: ADP report → recalibrate NFP expectations
• Thursday: EUR/USD direction → assess dollar asset exposure
• Friday: NFP release → avoid chasing moves in the first 30 minutes

Knowing the calendar does not guarantee profits. But it does mean you will not be surprised. And in markets, not being surprised is already a major advantage.

The first week of Q2 sets the tone for April. Rather than trying to predict exact outcomes, prepare your response plan in advance. Define your thresholds: if NFP comes in above X, you will do Y; if it misses, you will do Z. Pre-planned responses beat in-the-moment decisions every time.